Warner Bros. Discovery Downgraded by S&P, Amid Rising Leverage and NBA Contract Uncertainty. Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD) faced significant challenges in the first half of 2024, missing its financial targets. The ongoing revenue and cash flow declines in its linear TV operations are creating headwinds for the company. As a result, WBD’s ability to organically reduce leverage to 3.5x by 2025 has become increasingly difficult. S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on WBD to negative, maintaining a ‘BBB-‘ credit rating amid these financial pressures.
S&P Warns of Financial Strain for Warner Bros. Discovery Amid Rising Leverage and NBA Contract Uncertainty
WBD’s leverage is projected to stay elevated at 4.4x in 2024, only decreasing to 3.8x in 2025. The potential loss of NBA broadcast rights in 2025 could worsen the situation for WBD’s linear television segment. This loss might further strain the company’s efforts to reduce leverage, particularly if linear TV revenues continue declining.
WBD’s first-half 2024 performance revealed a challenging environment – Warner Bros. Discovery Downgraded
WBD’s first-half 2024 performance revealed a challenging environment, especially in the linear TV segment, impacting overall financial stability. The company saw a 10% year-over-year decline in linear advertising in Q2 2024, matching Paramount’s decline but worse than Disney and Fox. WBD’s reliance on general entertainment content contrasts with Disney’s and Fox’s emphasis on sports and news.
The company’s studio division also faced volatility due to the lingering effects of the 2023 writers’ strike and inconsistent success at its gaming studio. These factors contributed to a 6.6% revenue decline in the first half of 2024, leading to a forecasted 1.6% full-year revenue drop. Adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were also downgraded, reflecting ongoing financial pressures.
The potential loss of the NBA broadcast TV contract post-2025 could further strain WBD’s linear TV networks segment. Losing these rights would negatively impact audience ratings and advertising revenue, adding pressure on WBD’s earnings. While WBD holds other major sports rights, the NBA’s absence would significantly affect the company’s financial performance.
WBD’s ability to grow its direct-to-consumer (DTC) and studio segments will be crucial for stabilizing long-term earnings. The media landscape’s shift from linear television to streaming presents challenges, with WBD competing against dominant players like Netflix and Amazon. The company’s deep film and TV library, along with its strong intellectual property, provides a competitive edge in the streaming market.
WBD focused on expanding its streaming service, Max
In 2024, WBD focused on expanding its streaming service, Max, in new international markets, aiming for $1 billion in EBITDA by 2025. The company added over 5 million subscribers in the first half of 2024, with domestic average revenue per user (ARPU) growing by 9%. Sustaining this momentum will be vital for WBD to offset linear TV declines and improve its financial outlook.
WBD has consistently worked to reduce leverage, despite the challenges in the media ecosystem, by using cash flow to repay debt. In 2023, the company generated $6.2 billion in free operating cash flow (FOCF) and expects to produce about $4.4 billion in 2024. This financial discipline has helped WBD reduce its gross debt from $56.3 billion in 2022 to $41 billion as of June 2024.
Although WBD has not specified potential asset sales to reduce leverage, opportunities may exist to accelerate debt reduction. The negative outlook reflects concerns that WBD’s leverage will remain above the 3.5x threshold in 2025. The loss of NBA rights could further challenge the company’s efforts to stabilize its financial position.
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S&P Global Ratings may lower WBD’s ratings by the end of 2025 if leverage remains above 3.5x beyond that year. If free operating cash flow weakens, leading to a sustained decline below 10%, WBD could face additional financial pressures. The outlook could become stable if WBD successfully reduces leverage to 3.5x and maintains strong cash flow.
WBD’s future depends on its ability to improve operating performance, potentially through asset sales or other financial strategies. Achieving stability will require strong revenue and EBITDA growth in the DTC segment, coupled with a moderating decline in the networks segment. The company must navigate a rapidly changing media landscape to maintain its investment-grade rating and secure long-term success.
Warner Bros. Discovery Downgraded by S&P
